Motion-triggered cameras showcase the prevalence of ‘nectar robbing’ in Hawaiian flowers

Some long curved bills are the perfect implement for drawing sweet nectar from deep within a lobelioid flower. As birds reach into flowers to access the nectar stored near the base, their bills can brush against the ‘ pollen-bearing structures, making hungry honeycreepers important pollinators. But some of these specialized honeycreepers have gone extinct. Shorter-billed species can now “rob” nectar — without contacting the flower’s pollen-bearing structures — from the endangered flowers. A UW-led team used motion cameras to gauge how often nectar robbing occurs. The results, in Ecology and Evolution, reveal both nectar robbing and pollination visits, showcasing a broader pattern that the team previously identified . Nectar robbing can damage flowers and leave less nectar for other potential pollinators. The researchers 3D printed a bird bill to simulate nectar robbing and track changes in nectar availability and the plants’ ability to reproduce. Damaged flowers often struggled to replenish their nectar stores, but were still able to produce fruit and viable seeds. These studies are part of a that aims to catalog Hawaiian bird-plant interactions through time, specifically tracking how these interactions are reshaped by extinction.

For more information, contact lead author , a UW research scientist in the biology department, at sam.case24@gmail.com.

The other UW co-authors are , Christopher Steinbronn and . A full list of co-authors and funding is .

People with anxious attachment styles are more likely get emotionally involved with ChatGPT

rose to popularity in the late 20th Century as a way to categorize how people bond with others. Someone with an anxious attachment style, for instance, fears abandonment and rejection, whereas someone with an avoidant attachment style is independent at the cost of personal closeness. In , UW researchers explored how peoples’ attachment styles affect their interactions with ChatGPT. The team analyzed the chat histories of 105 young adults, each of whom completed an attachment-style survey. Researchers found that they could automatically detect peoples’ attachment styles based on their interactions with the chatbot. People with an anxious attachment style were more likely to be emotionally involved with the AI system, writing things like “Can you please love me?” and “I miss my ex and I can’t sleep because of it.” Anxious users were also more prone to trust ChatGPT and to follow its recommendations. The team argues that this highlights the need for policies that prohibit companies from psychologically profiling users without their consent, since it leaves them vulnerable to manipulation.

For more information, contact senior author , a UW associate professor in the Information School, at alexisr@uw.edu or lead author , a doctoral student in the Information School, at marxwang@uw.edu.

The other UW co-authors are , , and .

Nursing is a major energy suck, but it’s difficult to estimate the toll for many marine mammals

Marine mammals lactate like any other mammal, but the energetic demands are difficult to measure in wild animals and thus not well understood.Ìę Researchers are concerned that some marine mammals may not be getting enough food, which can lead to failure to reproduce and . To understand the link between nutritional status and reproduction, researchers need to know what marine mammals require to rear offspring. A published in PLOS One modeled the daily costs of lactation using data from semi-aquatic and terrestrial mammals to explore whether results could be generalized to other species, like whales and dolphins. Modeling could approximate lactation costs of certain understudied marine mammals, including seals and sea lions, but appeared unable to produce accurate estimates for whales and dolphins. Lactation costs increase over time for most animals, but seem to be higher early in lactation for marine mammals, possibly due to their fully aquatic lifestyle. The study highlights a need for other methods to fill the remaining data gap to better understand the impacts of environmental change on marine mammals.

For more information, contact lead author , a research scientist in the UW Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, & Ecosystem Studies, at emchuron@uw.edu. Funding information is .

Simulations suggest that lasers could ‘calm’ persnickety plasma

could supply humanity with — provided that scientists and engineers can work out how to create sustained fusion reactions safely, efficiently and affordably. The trick is in the taming of , a superhot state of matter made of free-floating electrons and atomic nuclei. When compressed to outlandish pressures and temperatures in a reactor, the nuclei fuse with one another, releasing energy. In that extreme environment, plasma forms instabilities that can derail a fusion reaction; much fusion research is focused on “calming” volatile plasma. published in Physics of Plasmas, UW researchers and other collaborators simulated a novel strategy to control instabilities using two opposing laser beams. By tuning the lasers’ properties — such as their frequency and polarity — the researchers prevented instabilities from growing and cascading. Surprisingly, the lasers also delayed other instabilities within the plasma, even though they were not directly targeted by the laser fields. By taking advantage of interactions within the plasma, the researchers found a way to calm instabilities indirectly. The results could help experts develop algorithms that stabilize plasma in real time, sustaining fusion conditions long enough to produce useful energy.

For more information, contact , UW professor of aeronautics and astronautics at shumlak@uw.edu.

A full list of co-authors and funding is .

When exposed to air, new nanomaterial becomes magnetic at high temperatures

While fridge magnets are great for saving favorite recipes, modern magnetic materials are useful for improving fiber optics or quantum information sciences technology. If you zoomed in on most fridge magnets, you’d see the atoms arranged in a repeated lattice structure called a “spinel.” These structures are made up of three types of atoms, generically referred to as atoms “A,” “B” and “X.” In a paper in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, UW researchers describe two new spinels made of silver, chromium and selenium ions. These are among the first spinels to include a silver ion in the “A” slot, the slot that determines the “vibe” of the spinel, or how it will react to various stimuli, such as light, heat or air. When exposed to air, the original spinel loses silver ions and transforms into the second spinel. The second spinel maintains its magnetic properties up to 400 Kelvin, or 260 degrees Fahrenheit; the original loses its magnetism at 152 K, or -185 F. This is the largest change ever documented in what is known as the Curie temperature, or the highest temperature at which a material is still magnetic. The researchers plan to continue to explore these two materials and what they can teach us about the fundamentals of magnetism.

For more information, contact lead author , UW doctoral student in chemistry, at ekbacong@uw.edu.ÌęÌęÌęÌęÌę

The other UW co-authors are Charlize Agag, , , , Yinuo Xu, , , and . A full list of co-authors and funding is .

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Earth is reflecting less sunlight, and absorbing more heat, than it did several decades ago. Global warming is advancing faster than climate models predicted, with observed temperatures exceeding projections in 2023 and 2024. These trends have scientists scrambling to understand why the atmosphere is letting more light in.

A new study, , shows that reducing air pollution has inadvertently diminished the brightness of marine clouds, which are key regulators of global temperature.

Between 2003 and 2022, clouds over the Northeastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, both sites of rapid surface warming, became nearly 3% less reflective per decade. Researchers attribute approximately 70% of this change to aerosols — and influence both cloud cover and cloud composition.

When research emerged showing that some aerosols are harmful, efforts to limit particulate pollution — specifically targeting the products of fossil fuel combustion — followed. Aerosol levels will likely continue to fall as clean energy replaces oil and gas. To improve the accuracy of global temperature forecasts, scientists need to capture the true relationship between aerosols, clouds, and heat from the sun in climate models.

“This paper is a substantial contribution to the evidence that reductions in particulate air pollutants are contributing to accelerated warming.” said , a principal research scientist at the UW Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies.

Researchers knew that low clouds over the ocean would dissipate as temperatures rose, exposing more surface area to warming sunlight and amplifying its effect. They also knew that particles in the atmosphere insulate Earth both by deflecting light and making the entire cloud more reflective.

The cooling effect from particulate pollution masked warming from greenhouse gases for decades. Accelerated warming was a potential consequence of improving air quality.

“It is clearly a good thing that we have been reducing particle pollution in the atmosphere,” Doherty said. “We don’t want to go back in time and take away the Clean Air Act.”

, the Clean Air Act marked the first of many worldwide efforts to control pollution.

“Our goal is to understand what is driving current climate changes to estimate how much warming we will see in the future,” Doherty added.

The Northeastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are warming faster than almost anywhere else on Earth, threatening and the . The researchers analyzed 20 years of satellite data documenting cloud dynamics above these bodies of water to identify the drivers behind the observed reduction in reflectivity.

They found that aerosols influence clouds in two ways. Small particles give water droplets something to cling to, and with a fixed amount of water, more aerosols means more small, shiny droplets in the clouds. By the same logic, reducing aerosols increases cloud droplet size. Large droplets are heavier, and quicker to fall to Earth as precipitation, which decreases the longevity of clouds, or cloud cover.

“When you cut pollution, you’re losing reflectivity and warming the system by allowing more solar radiation, or sunlight, to reach Earth,” said lead author , a UW senior research scientist of atmospheric and climate science.

Updating aerosol formation and cloud droplet size in climate models improved simulations of cloud reflectivity — a critical variable for projecting future temperatures.

“We may be underestimating warming trends because this connection is stronger than we knew,” von Salzen said. “I think this increases the pressure on everyone to rethink climate mitigation and adaptation because warming is progressing faster than expected.”

While these changes to global cloud reflectivity have prompted rapid warming on Earth, scientists are researching the feasibility of interventions that could make the clouds shinier without polluting the air. One such intervention is known as marine cloud brightening, in which ships spray seawater into the air to make low-lying oceanic clouds more reflective and help minimize warming from the sun.

“You could think of it as replacing unhealthy pollutant particles with another type of particle that is not a pollutant — but that still provides a beneficial cooling effect,” said , a UW professor of atmospheric and climate science.

However, before they are implemented, more research is needed to confirm that these methods are safe and without unintended consequences. In the meantime, this study will help scientists better forecast the impacts of climate change at a global scale.

Additional co-authors include; at the University of Toronto; at Imperial College London; , , and at Environment and Climate Change Canada.

This study was funded by the șÚÁÏÀÏËŸ»ú Marine Cloud Brightening Research Program, Environment and Climate Change Canada, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an Imperial College Junior Research Fellowship and a Royal Society University Research Fellowship.

For more information, contact von Salzen at kvsalzen@uw.edu, Doherty at sdoherty@uw.edu or Wood at robwood2@uw.edu.Ìę

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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is a system of ocean currents that plays a crucial role in regulating Earth’s climate by transporting heat from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere. Confined to the Atlantic basin, the AMOC modulates regional weather — from mild summers in Europe to monsoon seasons in Africa and India.

Climate models have long predicted that global warming will cause the AMOC to weaken, with some projecting what amounts to a near-collapse relative to the AMOC strength in observations today. But a new study from a team of researchers that included the șÚÁÏÀÏËŸ»ú shows that the AMOC is likely to weaken to a much lesser extent than current projections suggest. The study was published May 29 in .

A severe weakening would have far-reaching consequences, including changes in regional sea level rise, and major shifts in regional climate, such as colder conditions in northern Europe and drier weather in parts of the Amazon and West Africa.

“Our results imply that, rather than a substantial decline, the AMOC is more likely to experience a limited decline over the 21^st century — still some weakening, but less drastic than previous projections suggest,” says , lead author of the study and a UW postdoctoral research fellow in the .

The researchers developed a simplified physical model based on fundamental principles of ocean circulation — specifically, how sea water density differences and the depth of the overturning circulation are related — that also incorporates real-world measurements of the ocean current’s strength. The real-world data was collected over 20 years with monitoring arrays and other observations of the Atlantic basin.

Results show that the AMOC will weaken by around 18-43% by the end of the 21^st century. While this represents some weakening, it’s not the near-collapse that more extreme climate model projections suggest.

Paleoclimate records, like ocean sediments that record past climate conditions, indicate that the AMOC experienced weakening in the past. One example is during the last ice age 20,000 years ago, which led to major swings in the climate that affected North America and Europe.

Contemporary climate models show wide variation in 21^st century projections of AMOC weakening. This study aimed to reconcile these discrepancies by better understanding the physical mechanisms governing the AMOC behavior in climate models. Through this work, researchers shed light on a previously unexplained feature of climate models: the link between the present-day and future strength of the AMOC.

Climate models that simulate a stronger present-day AMOC tend to project greater weakening under climate change. Researchers found that this relationship stems from the depth of the AMOC. A stronger AMOC typically extends to greater depths and allows changes in surface water temperature and salinity properties — caused by global warming and freshwater input — to penetrate deeper into the ocean and drive greater weakening.

A climate model with a stronger and deeper AMOC is less resilient to surface changes and experiences proportionally more weakening than one with a shallower current. Climate models with a shallower present-day AMOC still show weakening under climate change, but to a lesser extent than those with a deeper present-day AMOC.

The researchers used the ocean observations to show that the real-world AMOC is relatively shallow when compared to most climate models. The results indicate that the AMOC will experience only limited weakening, even in the highest emissions scenarios. The study also suggests that much of the previous uncertainty and more extreme weakening projections stemmed from biases in how climate models simulate the ocean’s current state, particularly its density stratification.

“There is immense value in doing basic research,” Bonan said. “It can give us a better indication of what the future might look like, as our study shows.”

Bonan emphasized the need to examine higher-resolution climate models that also include more sophisticated processes. Higher-resolution models might offer deeper insights into AMOC behavior and improve projections of its future changes. The study provides a framework to interrogate and evaluate more sophisticated models.

, professor of atmospheric & climate science and oceanography at the UW, was a co-author.Ìę Other co-authors are Tapio Schneider and Andrew Thompson of the California Institute of Technology, Laure Zanna of New York University and Shantong Sun of Laoshan Laboratory in Qingdao, China. The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation and Schmidt Sciences LLC.

This story is adapted from a release by the California Institute of Technology.

For more information, contact Bonan at dbonan@uw.edu.

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It turns out the rate of that increase matters for non-living systems, too. A recent șÚÁÏÀÏËŸ»ú study looked at how a major current in the Atlantic Ocean that includes the Gulf Stream will respond to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial levels. The , published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that when carbon dioxide levels rise more gradually, they have less impact on the ocean circulation.

UW News sat down with author , a UW postdoctoral researcher in the , to learn more about her study.

Why did you choose to study how the rate of rising CO2 affects the climate system?

Camille Hankel: In my PhD, some of my work was on “climate tipping points,” which emerge from the hypothesis that there might be some sort of critical thresholds of warming or CO2 change that can lead to very abrupt and irreversible change in some parts of the climate system. Through that work, I got exposed to some literature on “rate-induced tipping points,” which is the idea that instead of crossing a critical level, that there could be some critical rates of CO2 change that are important for the climate system.

Specifically, I read this study that was looking at this idea in the context of the AMOC, the , which is this large-scale ocean circulation. That study was using what we call a box model — a simplified, mathematical representation of the ocean circulation. And I thought, hey, I can run these global models, which are much more realistic representations of the Earth’s climate, including ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice, and test whether the rate of CO2 change really is that important.

What is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which includes the Gulf Stream ocean current, and why is it so important for Earth’s climate?

CH: It’s one of the large-scale, key features of the climate system. In particular, it transports a lot of heat from the low latitudes in the South Atlantic to the higher latitudes closer to the North Pole. So it delivers a lot of heat, primarily to Northern Europe. It also distributes nutrients around through this sort of sinking motion that characterizes the circulation — it draws the surface waters down into the deep ocean, and recirculates deep water up to the surface. It’s a big feature of the climate system, particularly in the North Atlantic, but also globally.

We’ve heard about a potential slowdown of the Gulf Stream current that could affect European weather. This was dramatized (perhaps not accurately) in the 2004 disaster movie ‘.’ Are we actually seeing a slowdown in Atlantic Ocean circulation?

CH: We have a pretty short observational record of the AMOC current, and it’s sparse. You have to imagine, this is a 3D circulation in the entire Atlantic basin, and we have a couple little slices of data in particular parts of the Atlantic. We are seeing a modest slowdown so far, but it’s a pretty noisy and uncertain observational record, so it’s hard to tell.

I would say, however, that slowdown seen in current observations would match the model predictions of future slowdowns. And we also see a pattern in temperature changes where, while the rest of the globe is warming right now as we increase CO2, there’s what people call a “warming hole” over the North Atlantic: We’re not seeing as much warming in that North Atlantic region compared to the rest of the globe. And it’s hard to conclusively attribute what’s causing it in the Earth’s climate, but the idea is that the modest slowdown of the AMOC that we’ve seen so far could be one contributing factor to that lack of warming we’re seeing in the North Atlantic.

So the observations suggest some slowdown, though much less dramatic than what was depicted in that movie.

Why is the AMOC expected to slow down under climate change?

CH: One way of thinking about what drives this major ocean current is differences in ocean density. You have this really important zone in the North Atlantic where the waters sink because the surface waters are heavier than the waters below. When you change CO2 levels, you do two things. You start to warm the ocean’s surface, and by melting glaciers as well as changing sea ice, you add freshwater to the surface of the otherwise salty ocean. Both warming and freshening reduce the density of that upper ocean water and potentially inhibit or disrupt that critical sinking motion.

There are other ways of looking at it, but the one I look at in the study is understanding how those density perturbations happen in a higher-CO2 climate and how they modulate the sensitivity to the rate of CO2 change that I find in the AMOC’s response to CO2.

Your study finds that if atmospheric carbon dioxide doubles from pre-industrial levels more slowly, there’s less slowdown in the Atlantic Ocean compared to if CO2 doubles more quickly. Is that because everything is happening more slowly?

CH: Yes, that’s part of it. The different parts of the climate system — the ocean, atmosphere, and ice — all have different response timescales to CO2 changes, meaning they respond to perturbations with different lag times. Then how these components of the climate interact with each other under slower or faster CO2 changes can look very different, and in this case influence the ocean circulation.

Specifically, I found what’s known as a positive feedback — a sort of self-amplifying cycle — that helps explain why the level of AMOC weakening depends on the rate of CO2 change. In this feedback cycle, the initial modest amount of AMOC slowdown leads to a reduction of heat transport into the Arctic, which in turn cools the region and leads to a temporary period of Arctic sea ice expansion. This sea ice expansion causes more ice to be exported to the North Atlantic, where it melts and adds freshwater to the ocean, causing the AMOC to slow down even more: hence the self-amplifying cycle. It turns out that this feedback cycle is more effective at amplifying AMOC weakening under more rapid CO2 changes than under gradual CO2 changes.

What is the importance of this work?

CH: We know about AMOC slowdowns — there’s a ton of work on that, and the mechanisms that drive such an AMOC slowdown. But what’s new is this sensitivity of circulation changes to the rate of CO2 increase, independent of the total change in concentration of CO2.

When we think about policy and basic science, we tend to focus a lot on how the level of global warming can impact the climate system. I’m trying to bring a new perspective by thinking about the rate of increase as a driver itself, that could have a lot of impacts.

You can imagine that if multiple different climates are possible for the same level of warming, then limiting us to 1.5 C or 2 C could have different meanings, right? I do think the most important thing for the climate system is always how much CO2 have you put into the atmosphere, but how quickly you got to that point clearly matters as well.

Ìę

For more information, contact Hankel at crhankel@uw.edu.

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are highly social and vocal marine mammals. They use acoustics to navigate, find prey, avoid predators and maintain group cohesion. For Alaska’s critically endangered population, these crucial communications may compete with a cacophony of noise from human activities.

New research from the șÚÁÏÀÏËŸ»ú, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Alaska Fisheries Science Center and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game is the first to document the complex vocal repertoire of the Cook Inlet beluga whale population. It is also the first to quantify how ship noise may be masking specific beluga calls in this region.

The , published Nov. 30 in the Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, finds 41 distinct types of calls, of which 18 are unique to this population. It also finds that commercial ship noise completely masks these whales’ most commonly used calls.

“The core critical habitat for these whales is a very noisy area. Commercial shipping, an international airport, military operations and gas and oil exploration are all concentrated there,” said lead author , a doctoral student in the at the UW who did the work in collaboration with NOAA Fisheries’ .

“A fundamental knowledge gap for the Cook Inlet beluga population is how they communicate important information. The first step is to describe their vocal repertoire,” she added. “With that information, we can begin to understand if their communication is impacted by human-caused noise.”

Twenty-one populations of belugas are recognized worldwide, including five distinct populations in Alaska. The geographically and genetically isolated Cook Inlet beluga population is the smallest, recently estimated at just . Cook Inlet beluga whales live exclusively in their namesake waters alongside Anchorage, the state’s largest city and busiest port.

The Cook Inlet beluga whale population was listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act in 2008. A 2016 recovery plan ranked three threats as the highest level of concern, one being human-caused noise. Commercial shipping is the most prominent noise source within Cook Inlet, particularly in the upper inlet where most of the federally-designated critical habitat is located.

”All of that human-caused noise means the belugas may not hear critical communications from each other, such as predator alarm calls or a mother calling to her calf,” Brewer said.

While all whales are affected by noise, Cook Inlet belugas may be particularly vulnerable to noise as a stressor.

“Cook Inlet is extremely turbid year-round from glacial runoff. It looks like chocolate milk,” Brewer said. “Acoustic communication is extremely important for this population since visibility is so poor. And, unlike other, higher-Arctic beluga populations, this population is non-migratory, so they are exposed to this noise year-round.”

Cook Inlet’s extreme turbidity, dramatic tides, rapid currents and seasonal ice cover make it an extremely challenging place to study belugas. One way scientists can monitor these highly vocal whales is through sound.

The Cook Inlet Beluga Acoustics Program has been deploying bottom-mounted passive acoustic recorders to monitor belugas and human-caused noise since 2008. The study focused on recordings of beluga whale calls from 2018 to 2019.

“Until now, we did not have a quantified measure of masking by ship noise on Cook Inlet beluga communication. We knew this was a potential disturbance mechanism to focus our research efforts, but we were lacking a good understanding of what vocalizations are most important for beluga,” said co-author , a research scientist at the UW-based Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies who manages the acoustics monitoring program. “This study provides the first two steps into this direction: We now have a solid understanding of key vocalizations for this population, and how each ship transit is affecting beluga vocal exchange in the core area of their critical habitat.”

For the new study, scientists analyzed recordings at two critical habitat locations: Susitna River, just outside of Anchorage, and Trading Bay, farther out in the inlet.

They classified beluga vocalizations into three broad categories — whistles, pulsed calls and combined calls — and then further into 41 unique call types.

“I’ve spent thousands of hours listening to this population. Anytime I find a new call type, it’s really exciting,” Brewer said, “Eavesdropping on their world is really fascinating.”

The study found that the Cook Inlet beluga population, like other beluga populations, has a rich and complex repertoire. Vocal repertoire has been documented for eight of the 21 populations of belugas worldwide. Results from this study support the hypothesis that some call types are shared across populations, while others are unique.

Of the 41 types of calls the authors documented in the Cook Inlet population, 18 were not documented in any other population; 16 were documented in some but not all of the previously studied populations; and seven were common to all populations studied so far.

“Differences in vocal repertoire among different beluga populations may be driven by unique evolutionary, environmental or cultural influences,” Brewer said. “The divergence of the Cook Inlet vocal repertoire may be in part due to the population’s long-term geographic and genetic isolation.”

The researchers next looked at how the most commonly-used call types may be masked by human-caused noise. They focused on commercial ship noise, which is the most prominent noise type in Cook Inlet.

Analysis found that all seven of the most commonly-used call types in the Cook Inlet beluga vocal repertoire were partially masked by the time a commercial ship was within about 10 miles (17 kilometers) of the study site. Calls were completely masked when the vessel was closest to the site during the transit through the designated shipping lanes.

Roughly 486 commercial ships use the Port of Alaska annually, with an average of 8-10 ships coming and going per week. It is estimated that each ship passage will mask beluga communication at the study site for 1 hour and 50 minutes on average.

“Our results suggest that every time a commercial vessel transits through the Port of Alaska shipping lanes, Cook Inlet beluga communication could be heavily impacted within their core habitat,” Brewer said.

“Humans are such a visual species. It’s hard for us to comprehend how noisy it is under the surface of the ocean and how much noise impacts marine mammals such as belugas. We hope our findings will lead to further studies to better inform management about these types of human-caused impacts.”

The research was funded by NOAA Fisheries, Hilcorp Alaska LLC, Georgia Aquarium, Shedd Aquarium, the SeaWorld-Busch Gardens Conservation Fund and the H. Mason Keeler Endowed Professorship in Sports Fisheries Management at the UW.

Other co-authors are faculty members and in the UW School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences; and Tom Gage at the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

For more information, contact Brewer at arialb@uw.edu or Castellote at manuelcm@uw.edu.

Adapted from a NOAA .

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Ocean temperatures and their connections to weather trends have been making news. Five șÚÁÏÀÏËŸ»ú experts offer their perspectives on the current El Niño — a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects weather worldwide. UW researchers comment on the current El Niño, its effect on weather in the Pacific Northwest, as well as on regional and global ocean temperature trends.

, a UW research scientist at the , comments on the developing El Niño:

“This El Niño has evolved in a really interesting way. Since spring, the dynamical models have very confidently predicted an El Niño event. But while the key region of the tropical Pacific has warmed quickly, the typical atmospheric response has lagged. The atmosphere in the tropical Pacific is only now becoming more typical of an El Niño event, although it is still not fully matching the ocean surface. That’s unusual, because the tropical ocean and atmosphere tend to evolve together.

“It will be interesting to see how this El Niño continues to evolve over the next few months, which will help determine the extent of impacts on our upcoming winter weather. Remote impacts in places like Seattle tend to be stronger for stronger El Niño events. While sea surface temperature has typically been the main measure, the impacts might very well depend more on the atmospheric response. So the evolution of the system over the next few months will be key to the eventual local impacts in places like Seattle.”

Dennis Hartmann, professor of atmospheric sciences at the UW, on El Niño and its effects:

“The impact of El Niño on the Pacific Northwest varies a lot from one event to the other, depending on the spatial structure and size of the sea surface temperature changes in the tropics, and on the state of the atmosphere between the tropics and the Pacific Northwest. For that reason, the predictions of Pacific Northwest impacts based upon El Niño events that happened in the past are quite uncertain.

“In addition, the climate has warmed significantly in both the tropics and outside the tropics since some of the prior big El Niño events, in the 1970s and 1980s. That may add an additional complication to making an accurate forecast of how this winter will be different because of the current El Niño event.”

Nick Bond, a research scientist at CICOES and Washington’s state climatologist, on El Niño and its effects on Washington’s weather:

“El Niño conditions are present now in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and they are very likely to persist through the coming winter. The effects on Washington’s weather are expected to feature relatively warm, and perhaps drier, weather than usual after Jan. 1, and ultimately a lower-than-normal snowpack in our mountains at the end of winter. El Niño’s impacts on the weather in Washington state tend to be more consistent in the middle to latter part of the winter.

“But this is not written in stone — there has been variability among past El Niños in terms of effects on Washington’s winter weather.”

Jan Newton, senior principal oceanographer at the UW Applied Physics Laboratory and director of the UW-based , on what oceanographers are seeing in regional waters:

“Conditions off Washington’s outer coast have varied and are mainly influenced by changes in coastal upwelling and downwelling in the Pacific Ocean. Temperatures off the outer coast are now 4 degrees Fahrenheit (about 2 degrees Celsius) above normal, though variable.

“In Puget Sound, we’re starting to see surface water temperatures shift from cooler than normal, or normal, to consistently warmer than normal, but only by less than one degree Fahrenheit (half a degree Celsius). Given the large-scale warmth in the satellite-measured sea surface temperatures offshore, I do expect that we will continue to see warmer-than-normal sea temperatures in Puget Sound.Ìę However, it’s hard to predict if these differences from the average will stay small or will increase. What happens next will depend on ocean conditions and local weather.”

LuAnne Thompson, UW professor of oceanography, on the :

“The recent acceleration of ocean warming in the Atlantic is unprecedented in the historical record, and has created an Atlantic-wide marine heat wave. The ability of the ocean to absorb and store vast amounts of heat makes these types of events last longer. I study marine heat waves with a focus on their evolution in time and space. However, with more long-lasting, basin-wide events, such as the one we are seeing now in the Atlantic Ocean, we will need to reevaluate our approach.

“At a particular location, a marine heat wave occurs when the sea surface temperature is above a threshold, defined by what is typical for that time of year, and lasts for at least five days. However, with the global warming projected over coming decades, these dangerous hot water events will no longer be localized and of finite duration — they will no longer fit the traditional definition of marine heat waves. Instead, these marine heat wave events will become more persistent and widespread, and eventually will cover entire ocean basins.”

For more information, contact Levine at aflevine@uw.edu, Hartmann at dhartm@uw.edu, Bond at nab3met@uw.edu, Newton at janewton@uw.edu and Thompson at luanne@uw.edu.

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UW’s Lincoln Johnson receives student union association’s highest honor

Lincoln Johnson, associate vice president for student life at the UW, has been recognized with ACUI’s highest honor, the , for his significant contributions to the college union and student activities movement.

Founded in 1914, is a nonprofit educational organization that brings together college union and student activities professionals from hundreds of schools in seven countries.

Johnson has more than 30 years of senior leadership experience in higher education, working at small, large, public, private and faith-based institutions. He’s been an active volunteer with ACUI since 1995 and has been at the since 1996, where he first served as director of the Husky Union.

“For decades, Lincoln Johnson has continued to serve as a role model for our association and our campus communities,” said ACUI Chief Executive Officer John Taylor. “His willingness to participate, the energy he directs toward others to become involved, and his commitment to maintaining a culture of care on campuses are but a few of the attributes that have made his contributions so significant.”

Johnson received the award during a live ceremony at the Association’s 2022 Annual Conference in Chicago. In making the announcement before a live audience, Dave Barnes, James Madison University director of University Unions and ACUI past president (2012–13), reflected on nominator statements in support of Johnson receiving the honor.

“He constantly reminded me of that difference that I and so many of my colleagues were making, making it clear that we were supported whole-heartedly,” one student nominator wrote. “He emphasized that our work, and more importantly, that we as individuals, mattered. It made all the difference.”

You can view Johnson’s acceptance speech .

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UW receives INSIGHT Into Diversity Magazine’s Jesse L. Moore 2022 Supplier Diversity Award

The UW received the from magazine, the oldest and only print diversity and inclusion publication in higher education.

The award is a national recognition honoring colleges and universities that take proactive steps to support and engage with minority-owned businesses through supplier diversity offices, unique programs and leading initiatives.

The UW was recognized for its , which supports the University’s commitment to diversity, equity and inclusion by encouraging the UW community to consider small, local and diverse businesses when sourcing and purchasing goods and services. It is comprised of a multi-disciplinary team, which includes Procurement Services, UW Facilities and the Foster School of Business Consulting and Business Development Center.

“The UW Business Diversity and Equity team is proud of its collective efforts to identify, utilize and grow small and diverse businesses,” said Monica Acevedo-Soto, interim director for Facilities and Business Diversity at the UW. “Supplier diversity programs help communities and businesses thrive. Creating equity in business opportunities and diversity in our supplier base is integral to the UW’s values and exemplifies our commitment to making a positive social and economic impact in the community.”

The Business Diversity and Equity Program worked to raise awareness campuswide to the value of engaging with new and existing diverse businesses and providing opportunities for them to grow and thrive. Examples of collaborative efforts recognized by this award include student internships focusing on supplier diversity, a consulting and business development program offered to minority-owned small businesses, and inclusion goals for capital projects focused on minority-owned small businesses.

Winners will be announced in the April 2022 issue of INSIGHT Into Diversity magazine.

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Ben Brunjes begins fellowship with the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Policy Planning and Liaison

, an assistant professor of public policy at the UW Evans School of Public Policy & Governance, this month will begin a fellowship with the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Policy Planning and Liaison.

The fellowship is designed to meet the Biden administration’s mandate for studies and recommendations to increase equity in federal procurement. The administration last December in order to better serve small businesses owned by women and people of color.

An expert in federal contracts and government procurement, Brunjes will advise SBA officials; help create and update federal procurement rules and regulations; identify and share new data on federal contracting; and study trends in and the performance of federal procurement equity programs. More specifically, the work includes studying disparities by location and type of industry among small businesses owned by women and people of color, and how to provide tools and incentives to improve contracting and potential community revitalization.

“The SBA’s equity programs help support growing businesses around the U.S. This fellowship will give me the chance to help improve access for small businesses,” Brunjes said. “Procurement equity programs are among the most successful social improvement policies in our country and making them work better will improve the lives of hard-working Americans in communities that need investment the most.

The fellowship runs through Sept. 15, alongside Brunjes’ current responsibilities in the Evans School.

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Yong Wei honored by NOAA as ‘Ambassador of Tsunami Risk Assessment’

, a senior research scientist at the UW-based , was recently honored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory as an “Ambassador of Tsunami Risk Assessment.”

Wei is an expert in tsunami modeling, coastal flooding, and tsunami effects on structures in the U.S. and overseas. He is currently working on a multiyear NOAA project to assess tsunami hazards and develop “Tsunami Design Zones” for select overseas State Department facilities.

Wei helped developed probabilistic tsunami risk maps to update the American Society of Civil Engineers’ design standards, and applied these new design criteria in a UW–NOAA project funded by the U.S. Navy and the National Institute of Building Science to . In the Pacific Northwest, Wei performed tsunami inundation modeling and debris tracking for the Oregon State University’s Gladys Valley Marine Studies Building in Newport, Oregon, which last year won an for its focus on coastal resilience.

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Killer whales are intelligent, adaptive predators, often teaming up to take down larger whales as prey. Continuous reduction in sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is opening areas to increased killer whale dwelling and predation, potentially creating an ecological imbalance.

Underwater microphones placed off the western and northern coasts of Alaska show that killer whales have spent more time than previously recorded in the Arctic, following the decrease in summer sea ice. Brynn Kimber, a researcher from the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies, the study, “Tracking killer whale movements in the Alaskan Arctic relative to a loss of sea ice,” Dec. 2 in Seattle at a meeting of the Acoustical Society of America.

Killer whales will often travel to different areas to target varieties of prey. In the analysis of acoustic data recorded by four underwater microphones from 2012 to 2019, the Seattle-based team found that killer whales are spending longer in the Arctic Ocean in more recent years, despite risks of ice entrapment there. Their readings indicate this change is directly following the decrease in sea ice in the area.

“It’s not necessarily that killer whales haven’t been reported in these areas before, but that they appear to be remaining in the area for longer periods of time,” said Kimber. “This is likely in response to a longer open-water season.”

The study didn’t set out to focus on the killer whales, or orcas, said Kimber, who was surprised by the results.

“Our work mostly centers on examining the migration patterns of species through the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort seas, based on acoustic presence or absence. But when looking for other species, like beluga whales, I noticed more and more killer whales in areas where I didn’t expect them. That was what motivated me to take a closer look at our killer whale detections.”

The reduction in sea ice may be opening new hunting opportunities for killer whales, if certain species of prey can no longer use the ice to avoid the highly adaptive predator. For example, the endangered bowhead whale is vulnerable to predation by killer whales, but can hide under sea ice to avoid being circled by orcas. Last fall, another study led by a different CICOES researcher showed the in the Arctic.

This vulnerability, Kimber said, is likely to increase due to longer open-water seasons.

“Although there is high spatial and interannual variability, the September Arctic sea-ice minimum is declining at an average rate of 13% per decade when compared to values from 1981 to 2010,” Kimber said. “Killer whales are being observed in the Chukchi Sea (in the Arctic Ocean) in months that were historically ice covered, and more consistently throughout the summer.”

This study was funded by NOAA, the U.S. Navy and the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. Collaborators are , a former UW master’s student who is now at CICOES; at CICOES; and at NOAA.

For more information, contact Kimber at brynn.kimber@noaa.gov.

Adapted from an Acoustical Society of America

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New research on the Pacific Northwest portion of the Dungeness crab fishery, which spans the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada, projects how this crustacean will fare under climate change.

Results show that by the end of this century, lower-oxygen water will pose the biggest threat. And while these crabs start as tiny, free-floating larvae, it’s the sharp-clawed adults that will be most vulnerable, specifically to lower-oxygen coastal waters in summer.

The open-access from researchers at the șÚÁÏÀÏËŸ»ú, the University of Connecticut and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be in the December issue of AGU Advances, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

“Including all life stages allowed us to identify a critical life stage, and thus make a management recommendation,” said co-author at the University of Connecticut, who began the study while at the UW. “Looking seasonally, instead of annually, gives different — and more severe — vulnerability estimates.”

Dungeness crab is the largest single-species fishery in the Northwestern U.S. Washington’s Dungeness Crab Festival takes place in October near the Dungeness Cove that gives the species its name, and the crustacean is a favorite of Pacific Northwest holiday meals and in traditional diets. The study was designed in consultation with the Hoh, Makah, Quileute and Quinault Indian Nation tribes, whose members harvest, study and eat Dungeness crab on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula.

The researchers used a detailed computer model of ocean conditions to simulate the shifting properties of the water the crabs inhabit. Using a scenario of high carbon emissions through 2100, the model looks at how heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere will make the ocean warmer, carbon dioxide transferred from the air will make the surface waters more acidic, and warmer water will hold less dissolved oxygen.

Previous research has shown that the Dungeness crab is vulnerable to climate change. Those studies focused on changes in ocean pH, while the new paper includes multiple ocean properties and uses a model that is more detailed in space and time.

Time and place are both important. Crabs mate in spring and females produce eggs in late fall. Eggs begin to hatch in January and release larvae, which float in the offshore currents while growing, shedding and regrowing their shells five times. In summer the fully developed larvae come back closer to shore and molt, becoming juvenile crabs that scamper on the ocean floor.

The authors used an ocean model to study the consequences of climate stressors at different times throughout the Dungeness crab’s life stages — from eggs, to larvae, to juveniles, to adults.

“We found that for all three stressors there will be increased population-level vulnerability, and the most severe is to low oxygen levels,” said first author , a doctoral student at the University of Connecticut. “Low-oxygen events happen during the coastal upwelling season in spring and summer, which impacts the adults, whereas ocean acidification manifests more year-round in the future, impacting all life stages but less severely.”

Lab studies of Dungeness crab combined with model results suggest that the most severe effects will be lower dissolved oxygen along the coastal seafloor in summer, harming the adults. This is unlike other species, such as shellfish, which are thought to be most vulnerable in the larval stage.

Like other animals, crabs breathe oxygen. Warmer water holds less gas, so even if marine life can handle the higher temperature and acidity, the drop in oxygen may lower the chance for survival.

“The value of this down-scaled model is that it can help tribes and state agencies to focus their efforts in both space and time,” said co-author , an oceanographer at the UW Applied Physics Laboratory and co-director of the . “This information is very pertinent to resource managers.”

The researchers say these results could be incorporated into decision-making as ocean conditions change.

“An example would be monitoring low-oxygen events in the summer, and maybe pulling the crab traps earlier,” Berger said. “This would help mitigate from the crabs dying in the trap.”

Further research on the Dungeness crab should include more lab studies on how the species responds to multiple stressors. More generally, authors say, the study shows a way to understand how marine species with complex life stages will respond to climate change.

Other co-authors are and at the UW-based Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies; and at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and at the University of Connecticut.

The research was funded by NOAA and was part of a regional vulnerability assessment for the Olympic Coast to ocean acidification.

For more information, contact Siedlecki at samantha.siedlecki@uconn.edu, Newton at janewton@uw.edu and Berger at halle.berger@uconn.edu.

NOAA grant: NA17OAR0170166

Part of this text was adapted from a by the University of Connecticut.

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Firefighters have reported that Western wildfires are starting earlier in the morning and dying down later at night, hampering their ability to recover and regroup before the next day’s flareup.

A study by șÚÁÏÀÏËŸ»ú and U.S. Forest Service scientists shows why: The drying power of nighttime air over much of the Western U.S. has increased dramatically in the past 40 years. The was published online in July in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

“Nighttime is an important time in fire management. When fires die down at night it gives firefighters a chance to rest, move equipment and strategize. The problem firefighters are reporting is an unexpected increase in nighttime fire activity,” said lead author , a UW research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean & Ecosystem Studies, a joint center with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Our findings support that this has been going on over the last 40 years over much, but not all, of the Western U.S.”

Earth’s atmosphere is warming due to climate change, and warming in many places has been greater at night. Warmer night air had been suspected as the culprit , with burns continuing later into the night.

The new study, however, shows it’s not just that the night air is warmer, but also a dramatic shift from 1980 to 2019 in its drying power — how much moisture the nighttime air can carry away from the fuels — over much of the Western U.S. This shift is not captured in climate models, and the authors say it could be related to natural long-term cycles rather than to climate change.

“We paid special attention to the change in recent years compared to the conditions seen in the ’80s and ’90s, which is when many of the current firefighters started their careers, and presumably formed their ideas about what normal fire behavior should look like,” Chiodi said. “We tried to quantify the changes that we were hearing about from firefighters.”

The study looks at the “vapor pressure deficit,” or the difference between the moisture in the air and the saturation moisture level at that air temperature. This difference is a measure of the air’s drying power.

“In the southern Sierra Nevada, the average summer nighttime vapor pressure deficit for the recent decade was 50% higher than the average in the ’80s and ’90s,” Chiodi said. “I was surprised — it’s unusual to see geophysical data change that dramatically.”

Some of this shift in vapor pressure deficit is happening because warmer nighttime air, caused by climate change, produce higher saturation values. But part of the drying power is happening because the nighttime air in some regions has less moisture, and that effect is not predicted by climate change models, at least this much or in this pattern. The authors find a possible connection to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a long-term cycle that can influence inland weather.

The increased drying power of nighttime air is especially pronounced in California’s San Joaquin Valley and in the Bitterroot-Blue Mountain Region — including parts of the Idaho Panhandle, southeast Washington, northeast Oregon and western Montana.

“Firefighters had been saying for several years that they feel some fires burn later into the evening than they used to,” said co-author at the U.S. Forest Service’s Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory. “We found that in some areas, the amount of water in the air is decreasing, sort of doubling up on the warmer nights. These areas, including where the Snake River Complex and Lick Creek fires are burning right now, are much more likely to have fires burn late into the night.”

The analysis used hourly weather outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The recently released hourly reconstructions of historical weather allowed investigation of daily cycles.

The next step, Chiodi said, is to further explore the causes of these changes in nighttime vapor pressure deficit. After that, he hopes to connect the atmospheric conditions more directly to fuel moisture and fire behavior.

The other co-author is at the U.S. Forest Service’s Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory in Seattle. The research was funded by the U.S. Forest Service through its research team and by NOAA.

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For more information contact Chiodi at chiodi@uw.edu or Potter at brian.potter@usda.gov.

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