Last month, a group of 175 researchers, including eight from the 黑料老司机, co-authored published in Earth鈥檚 Future and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

The paper provides a roadmap for future climate assessments in the U.S. by synthesizing the science and identifying research priorities based on existing gaps. 鈥淯.S. Climate Collection: Informing Assessment of Risks and Solutions鈥� is the first article to appear in a launched by the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society.

Many of the scientists who co-authored this commentary were invited to contribute to the sixth National Climate Assessment (NCA), slated for early 2028, but were then dismissed in April 2025 after the Trump Administration for the assessment. The fifth NCA was published in 2023.聽

The federal government is legally required to produce a National Climate Assessment chronicling climate change every four years per the . These assessments track new and evolving risks related to climate change, as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. The national scope is key to ensuring that funding and policies represent a broad range of experiences and concerns. 

鈥淚nternational assessments are valuable, but they are not always tailored to the specific regions and issues that are important in the United States. National assessments fill that gap,鈥� said , Washington state climatologist and a research scientist in the UW Climate Impacts Group.

The special collection is not intended to replace the NCA but rather compile research for other scientists, policymakers and members of the public to aid in decision making. The commentary kicks off the collection by identifying where research has advanced, and how risks have changed, in the years since the last assessment. 

鈥淥ur understanding of climate change and its impacts continues to evolve,鈥� said , professor of global health, of environmental and occupational health sciences, and of emergency medicine in the UW School of Medicine. 鈥淐onducting regular climate assessments allows us to systematically evaluate that new evidence, incorporate it into our understanding of current circumstances, present it to stakeholders, and apply it to near-term decisions in our respective sectors.鈥� 

UW News asked each of the UW contributors to elaborate on their role in authoring the commentary and how it connects to their research.

, research scientist, UW Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies: 鈥淚鈥檓 an oceanographer with intimate experience in federal research funding mechanisms and with a broad familiarity with ocean warming and CO2 uptake with associated acidification and feedback on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Initially I was appointed to coordinate among federal agencies, academics and policymakers, but that changed dramatically when the Trump administration eliminated NCA6. In the scramble I became more of an author, and an editor of the Ocean section. 

鈥淪ome of my research at the UW involves ocean model development in collaboration with NOAA. It was a natural fit to contribute to the discussions on 鈥楽imulations of ocean conditions鈥� and on 鈥業nnovations in ocean observation and data science.鈥欌��

, professor of urban and environmental planning 鈥淚 led the urban team and the section on urban regions. Urban regions are central to climate assessments. They concentrate populations and human activities, contribute substantially to climate change, and shape how impacts propagate across neighborhoods, metropolitan systems, national supply chains, and global markets. They are also critical places to examine where mitigation and adaptation reinforce one another, where they create trade-offs, and how benefits, costs, and risks are distributed across communities. 

鈥淥ur section argues that future assessments must represent cities as complex dynamic systems. We call for comparative, long-term evaluation of urban mitigation and adaptation strategies. For nature-based solutions, that means testing performance under future climate conditions and assessing multiple functions, life-cycle costs, social and ecological outcomes, and trade-offs rather than simply measuring short-term, project-level benefits.鈥�

Mauger: 鈥淚 contributed to the Northwest section of the paper, based on my expertise in regional climate impacts and adaptation science, specifically around water and flooding. Our synthesis reflects many of the emerging issues I see in my work helping communities, tribes, agencies and others to understand and prepare for the effects of climate change. For example, we highlight new research on the effectiveness of resilience actions 鈥� as more communities take action on climate, I am seeing a greater need for research of this kind.鈥�

, principal scientist, UW Climate Impacts Group: 鈥淚 also contributed to the Northwest section of the paper. My work at UW aims to provide the science, tools and guidance needed by governments and communities as they respond to climate impacts and prepare for those to come. Most of this work is focused on the Northwest, with a heavy emphasis on ecosystems and natural resources. The Northwest section of the paper highlights many of the climate risks and adaptation advances and challenges my partners on the ground face every day.鈥�

Hess: 鈥�The takeaways from the health section, which I helped draft, are that we need more information on health impacts from extreme weather and compound events, as well as information on the costs of these impacts. We also need more strategies for advancing adaptation in public health and health care systems; we need health care interventions to protect patients at particular risk; we need more information on nature-based solutions; and we need more information to help convey the health benefits of a clean energy transition. 

鈥淭he recommendations related to interventions and adaptation in the health sector are particularly relevant to my work at the UW, which is focused on climate change health impacts and opportunities for increasing resilience of the public health and health care systems. I research these issues and also provide leadership related to sustainability and climate resilience for UW Medicine.鈥�

, professor of global health and of environmental and occupational health sciences: 鈥淚 was an author on the Air Quality chapter that focused on how climate change could alter exposures to poor quality, from pollen to wildfire smoke to indoor and outdoor air quality. One of my areas of research at UW is quantifying the extent to which reducing greenhouse gas emissions could reduce morbidity and mortality from outdoor air pollution. The evidence is robust that the economic value of the health benefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions would be of the same order of magnitude 鈥� if not larger 鈥� than the costs of reducing emissions. In other words, reducing greenhouse gas emissions would benefit Americans by decreasing hospitalizations and deaths.鈥�

Other UW co-authors include , research scientist of environmental and forest sciences and Deputy Director of the Western Fire and Forest Resilience Collaborative and , affiliate professor of environmental and forest sciences. 

For more information, contact Alberti at malberti@uw.edu.

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From its base at the southwest corner of the Seattle campus, the provides expertise, tools and resources on 鈥渁ll things climate鈥� to partners and communities across the state.

was announced in the spring as the . Mauger is a research scientist with the UW Climate Impacts Group, which now houses the state climatologist鈥檚 office. Mauger鈥檚 research focuses mainly on water and floods in the context of climate change.

, a UW research scientist and the deputy state climatologist, studies such things as nighttime heat in Seattle and new ways to display weather data, as well as other trends involving heat and drought.

Together, they provide data and share news on whatever鈥檚 in the skies. From heat domes to hailstorms, from snowpack to summer drought, they provide perspective on the short-term and long-term weather woes and questions facing Washingtonians.

鈥淥ur goal is to help people understand the climate and how it affects their daily lives,鈥� Mauger said.

Right now, many people in the region are curious about the upcoming winter season.

鈥淭his year we鈥檙e expecting to see a weak La Ni帽a develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean,鈥� Bumbaco said. For Washington that means 鈥渙n average, we tend to have cooler-than-normal temperatures, a little bit more precipitation, and more snowpack by the end of our winter season during La Ni帽a winters.鈥�

Mauger and Bumbaco also conduct research on changes in rainfall patterns and flood risks, and on temperatures and wildfire risks for the coming season and over the longer term. Visit the Office of the Washington State Climatologist鈥檚 website to check out the seasonal , a list of or to subscribe to a on the current state of Washington鈥檚 climate.

For more information, contact Mauger at mauger@uw.edu or Bumbaco at kbumbaco@uw.edu.

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To deal with those threats and prepare for the impacts still to come, 10 state agencies collaborated on the . Using the latest science as a foundation, the state鈥檚 new climate strategy, released Sept. 30, identifies actions that agencies will take to address the top climate change threats facing Washington: drought, changing ocean conditions, flooding, extreme heat, and wildfires and smoke.

The strategy鈥檚 creation was directed by the Washington Legislature, bringing together the state departments of agriculture, commerce, ecology, fish and wildlife, health, natural resources, transportation, the Washington State Conservation Commission, the Emergency Management Division and the Puget Sound Partnership. The UW Climate Impacts Group grounded the work with the most up-to-date science and developed a framework to measure progress on climate resilience.

The Legislature has also directed the 10 agencies to update the plan every four years to incorporate the latest science, resources and concerns into the strategy.

鈥淭his plan gives our state a road map to respond to major climate impacts like wildfires, smoke, severe heat, drought and flooding,鈥� said , interim director of the UW Climate Impacts Group, which acts as a hub for climate information and adaptation strategy for Washington state agencies and communities. 鈥淏y understanding what the state can do, what resources are available, and where they can have the greatest impact, we can limit the damage caused by these events, protecting lives, livelihoods and the environment that supports us all.鈥�

In the plan, each of the responsible agencies will act as the lead for specific actions, based on their existing roles and expertise.

鈥淲ashington got lucky this summer. We had fewer major wildfires and more moderate drought,鈥� said Laura Watson, director of the state Department of Ecology. 鈥淲e know that was just a temporary reprieve. We鈥檝e seen devastating proof in recent years of how vulnerable our state is. We are very susceptible to rising temperatures, summer wildfires, drought and winter floods. We have to prepare now so we鈥檙e ready for what鈥檚 to come.鈥�

UW Climate Impacts Group contributors also included , Washington’s State Climatologist, and , a climate resilience specialist. , who鈥檚 now deputy director at the , of which the UW is a member, contributed while based at the UW Climate Impacts Group.

Adapted from a Department of Ecology . For more information, contact Stowe at stowec@uw.edu.

A launch event will take place 11 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 10, at the UW. Space is limited but reporters are welcome to register . At the launch, UW researchers who contributed to the 5th National Climate Assessment will also share the latest science and findings from the assessment’s Northwest chapter.聽

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The report includes projections for more than 150 different sites along the Washington coastline, from all marine shorelines in Washington state. It incorporates the unique geology-driven land motion, with uplift at Neah Bay and sinking in Seattle. And it provides the latest, probabilistic estimates to let planners weigh the risks of different scenarios.

The projections, July 30, include an embedded Google map where anyone who is involved with planning projects along the coast can download estimates for their location.

“One of the things we’ve heard from the planners we have shown it to so far is ‘Hey, for the first time we have something that we feel is actionable,'” said first author , a coastal hazards specialist at . “I hope we’re going to hear that more, and that these projections will find their way into planning processes at the community scale.”

The new report provides probabilistic estimates for 171 coastal sites each decade from now until 2150. The analysis follows two previous assessments of sea-level rise in the state: the for sea-level rise in Washington, Oregon and California, and a led by the UW . In addition to updating the science, the new report offers more detail on what to expect at specific locations.

The study follows a 2015 UW on how climate change will affect Puget Sound. This new study provides much greater detail about sea-level rise, both in Puget Sound and along the coast.

“Previous assessments were zoomed out, and were not fine-scale enough to capture the variations in land movement along the coastlines,” said second author , a research consultant with the UW Climate Impacts Group. “Neah Bay is rising, and south Puget Sound is sinking. That up and down movement has a pretty big influence on how far the ocean will be able to travel inland.”

The numbers also offer the first probabilistic projections for sea-level rise in Washington state. Instead of just giving low, medium and high estimates, the authors applied a recently developed method that calculates the percent chance that a given water level will be exceeded, allowing planners to decide how they want to respond to, for instance, a water level with a 1 percent chance of occurring by a given year.

“There are two factors that determine what steps a community might take to adapt, and both really need to be decided at the local level. First, what is the context 鈥� is it a hospital or other piece of critical infrastructure, or is it a park? That’s your risk tolerance. And second, what is your value judgment of the amount of risk that’s acceptable?” said third author , a research scientist at the Climate Impacts Group.

The new report is part of the , a three-year effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The larger project includes collaborations with partners at Island County, which covers Whidbey Island and Camano Island, and the City of Tacoma to incorporate climate change in coastal plans.

Report authors have been working with governments to incorporate these new numbers into their coastal plans, and with other state and environmental groups to consider sea-level rise projections in their coastal restoration projects.

Overall, the new report gives a statewide estimate for about 1.5 feet of sea-level rise by 2100 if we manage to limit future greenhouse emissions. The upper bound for 2100, with emissions reductions, is about 7 feet, incorporating the latest science on Antarctic glaciers that increases the amount of possible sea-level rise under certain scenarios.

Future sea-level rise is inevitable from the amount of greenhouse gases already emitted, but longer-term estimates depend on how much we will be able to limit future emissions. On top of these big-picture uncertainties, Washington state’s complex coastline and geologic activity create more unknowns for coastal communities.

When working with the Jamestown S’Klallam Tribe on coastal planning, Miller saw some of the frustrations of working with low, medium and high projections while not knowing how to weigh the various risks. Communities on the coast are also aware that the land is being pushed up by the offshore geologic fault, but were unsure how much that would counteract rising seas.

“People in our coastal communities are aware that we have vertical land movement, and that has led to misconceptions about whether we need to worry about climate-driven sea-level rise,” Miller said. “It’s important to include, because if you don’t, it leaves that lingering possibility in people’s minds.”

Other co-authors are , a UW associate professor of Earth and space sciences, and , a former UW graduate student; and at the University of Oregon; and at the U.S. Geological Survey. The study was largely funded by the NOAA’s and NOAA’s , with additional support from project partners the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Island County, the City of Tacoma, The Nature Conservancy, Washington Department of Ecology, King County and Padilla Bay National Estuary Research Reserve.

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For more information on the report, contact Miller, who is based in Port Angeles, at immiller@uw.edu or 360-417-6460 and Morgan, who is based in Seattle, at hmorg@uw.edu or 206-685-4068. The full report is available at.

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, a research scientist in the UW’s Climate Impacts Group, , a UW affiliate professor of environmental and forest sciences, and , a UW research scientist in civil and environmental engineering, were among scientists who consulted with artists on their creations for a first-time exhibit focusing on climate change and its impacts on Northwest coastal communities.

“It’s a really well-curated exhibit, with original works by artists ranging from performance art to a sea level rise installation throughout the town of La Conner,” Mauger said. The exhibit also includes informational posters about how climate change will affect the broad, fertile coastal floodplain that is one of the most productive agricultural areas west of the Cascades, and holds ecological and cultural importance.

Mauger will be part of a followed by a reception 3 p.m. on Sunday, September 25.

Admission to the museum is free. The exhibit will end when the museum closes 5 p.m. Sunday, but it’s possible that it may become an annual event.

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For more information, contact Mauger at gmauger@uw.edu or 206-685-0317.

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The Puget Sound watershed 鈥� the area west of the Cascades Mountains that stretches from the state capitol up to the Canadian border 鈥� is warming. It also faces rising seas, heavier downpours, larger and more frequent floods, more sediment in its rivers, less snow, and hotter, drier summer streams.

A new by the 黑料老司机 synthesizes all the relevant research about the future of the Puget Sound region to paint a picture of what to expect in the coming decades, and how best to prepare for that future.

“When you look at the projected changes, it’s dramatic,” said lead author , a research scientist at the UW . “This report provides a single resource for people to look at what’s coming and think about how to adapt.”

Ten UW authors contributed to the report, which draws on published papers, agency studies and regional adaptation efforts now taking place. This first major update since 2005 includes new topics such as sediment transport and landslides, more details on salmon impacts, ocean acidification and flooding, and more specifics about how different parts of the region will change.

The report looks at all 12 major river systems that drain into Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca, summarizing projected changes that affect humans and ecosystems. The report is aimed at policymakers, resource managers and the general public.

Projected changes include:

• Average air temperatures in Puget Sound will rise by between 2.9 and 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2050s, for the most optimistic scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions
• Ocean levels will rise by 4 to 56 inches by 2100, with the latest predictions offering more specifics on geographic variability and the effects of storm surges
• Winter flooding will increase due to rising oceans, more winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, and more frequent and intense heavy rains
• Landslide prediction requires more research, but more rain in the winter and more extreme heavy rain events are expected to increase the overall risk of landslides
• Rivers are projected to carry more sediment downstream, as glaciers recede and expose loose material, and higher river flows and more intense rainfall will likely act to increase erosion. For example, sediment in the Skagit River is projected to more than double by the end of this century.
• Peak river flows are projected to rise the most in places such as the Snohomish River that have a lot of area around the snowline, where warming will cause precipitation to shift from snow to rain
• Warmer air, less meltwater and lower summer flows will combine to raise river temperatures in the summer, making many waterways less hospitable for salmon
• Heat waves are expected to become more frequent. While smaller than the changes projected for Eastern Washington, shows a bigger public-health risk west of the Cascades, where people are less prepared for the heat
• Agriculture west of the Cascades is very diverse, and the effects of climate change on this region are understudied
• Warmer oceans will likely favor more frequent toxic algae blooms
• Increasing acidity of seawater will affect the shellfish industry, and may increase the toxicity of some algal blooms. Impacts on other marine life are not yet fully known.

The report also looks at how the community is beginning to respond. It cites two recent studies on how increased river flows will alter flood risks, one for the lower , from Monroe to the Sound, and the other for the lower Skagit River, from Mount Vernon to the Sound.

“It’s taking that next step, from numbers that give you an idea of what might happen, to numbers that give you the specific information that’s needed to plan for climate change,” Mauger said.

The report also includes examples of community adaptation, both in planning and in practice. In 2007, King County combined all its districts so the region could more effectively prepare for a future with increased flooding. As another example, the city of Anacortes considered both rising seas and heavier river sediment in designing its new that opened in 2013.

“In the same way that the science is very different from the , in 2005, I think the capacity and willingness to work on climate change is in a completely different place,” Mauger said.

The work was funded by the at UW Tacoma, which is supported by the Puget Sound Partnership and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Other partners are the Washington Department of Ecology and The Nature Conservancy.

Co-authors are , , , , , , , , and , all at the UW.

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For more information, contact Mauger at 206-685-0317 or gmauger@uw.edu.

Other media contacts:

• Puget Sound Institute: (director) at聽253-254-7025 or jebaker@uw.edu and (media contact) at jeffrice@uw.edu or 253-254-7030 x8008
• Puget Sound Partnership: Alicia Lawver (communications) at 360-464-2011 alicia.lawver@psp.wa.gov
• The Nature Conservancy: Julie Morse (collaborator) at jmorse@tnc.org or Robin Stanton (media contact) at 206-436-6274 or rstanton@tnc.org
• Washington Dept. of Ecology: Camille St. Onge, climate communications manager, 360-407-6932 or cast461@ecy.wa.gov
• NOAA: Michael Milstein, NOAA Fisheries communications, at 503-231-6268 or Michael.Milstein@noaa.gov

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