In the first听month听of the听COVID-19听pandemic, nearly all 50听states announced听restrictions on gatherings and听businesses, and most issued stay-at-home orders, aiming to听curb听disease transmission and听avoid听overburdening health systems.
States听eased听those听policies听based on politics as much as听COVID-19听death rates听or听case counts, according to new research from the 黑料老司机.听The researchers also found听that states with large Black communities,听despite those communities being听hit hardest by the pandemic, also lifted restrictions earlier.
In general,听the听听in听Perspectives on Politics听found听that states with Republican governors听补苍诲听a听larger听vote share听for听Donald听Trump in 2016听eased their restrictions听two听weeks听earlier听than states with Democratic governors听补苍诲听smaller Trump vote shares, all else equal.
鈥淭he听push by Trump to politicize social distancing policy听came at a critical time:听In April 2020, cases were听still very high听in many states.听Many听Republican governors听pulled the trigger on easing too early,鈥澨齭aid听lead author听, a听professor of political science at the UW.
The听study is the latest from听the听听led by Adolph. Last year, the team published papers on the influence of politics on social distancing policies听补苍诲听mask mandates听and, like the latest research, found that a governor鈥檚 political party was a key driver in what are听ostensibly听public health decisions.听There听was a 鈥渘ear-immediate politicization of this public health crisis,鈥� the authors wrote in their new paper, exacerbated when then-President Trump declared that听.
The new study looked at when states eased five听policies, beginning in mid-April 2020: stay-at-home orders; limits on gatherings; closures of nonessential businesses such as gyms听and movie theaters; and听restrictions on the operation of听restaurants and听bars.听In all five categories, researchers found that Republican-led states听eased听restrictions听on indoor activity听earlier听than Democratic-led ones, but by early July听2020,听all states had eased at least one听social distancing policy.
The team analyzed those moves taking into account other听factors听鈥斕齢ealth听indicators听such as COVID-19听deaths, confirmed cases听补苍诲听test positivity rates,听along with听other听variables听such as governor鈥檚 political party, Trump鈥檚听share of the vote in 2016,听state听population density听and some听demographic characteristics.
Public health indicators did play a role, the researchers point out,听as states with听better trends in听epidemiological indicators听could be听expected听to ease restrictions听two weeks (an听average of 14.1 days) ahead of states听where听trends in听case counts and deaths听were听worsening or improving more听slowly. But the听influence听of听COVID-19 trajectories听was slightly less than that of the governor鈥檚 political party and the share of Trump voters.听All else equal, states听with a Republican governor and a majority of Trump voters听could be听expected to begin easing restrictions just over two weeks听(an average of 14.5 days)听ahead of Democratic-led states.
鈥淪ince March听2020,听state-level decisions听on听the response to听COVID-19听have been听influenced听by politics as much as听鈥� and sometimes more than 鈥斕齪ublic health data and evidence on evolving pandemic needs.听In the U.S.,听this听has happened for听,听, vaccination and testing requirements,听travel restrictions 鈥斕齟verything,鈥澨齭aid听,听a study听co-author听and doctoral听candidate听in听political science听at the UW.
The authors warn听that听polarized听politics听could further听hinder听how听future public health emergencies听are听handled in the United States.听For instance,听following the initial loosening of social distancing restrictions,听.听Yet a听fragmented听approach听toward COVID-19听continued through the summer and fall of 2020, culminating in听a听devastating winter surge听and deepening听partisan听divisions.
鈥淧ublic health听inherently involves political considerations and trade-offs, so听completely听divorcing politics from听public health听decision-making and policy implementation听isn鈥檛 really听an听option.听Instead,听we should听recognize how听public health policy and practice听occur听within听existing political听environments, and听actively听work within those systems to ensure听strong science听and timely data can inform听decisions,鈥� said听, a study co-author and doctoral student in global health at the UW.
The team also analyzed the听association between the听loosening of restrictions and听a state鈥檚 Black population, given the听.听Indeed,听states with larger percentages of their population identifying as Black saw COVID-19 social distancing policies eased nearly a week听(an average of听6.7 days)听earlier than states with a smaller Black population 鈥� a finding that may mirror patterns of systemic racism and enduring neglect toward听Black communities听in the U.S.
鈥淭he COVID-19 pandemic continues to exact an uneven toll for individuals and communities, especially people of color and frontline听workers who face higher exposure to the virus. Each decision to reduce听COVID-related protections听places听already marginalized groups听at risk,听and needs to be made very carefully.听This was true in 2020,听补苍诲听it remains true today,鈥澨鼳dolph听said.
The study was funded by听the听Benificus听Foundation and听the UW Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences.
In addition to听Adolph, Bang-Jensen, and听Fullman, co-authors were听, professor and chair of political science at the听UW;听,听,听听补苍诲听, all doctoral students in political science at the UW; and听, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Toronto听who completed this work while a doctoral student in political science at the UW.
For more information, contact Adolph at cadolph@uw.edu.